The Moment I Realized Our Owner Change Order Numbers Weren’t Normal

The Moment I Realized Our Owner Change Order Numbers Weren’t Normal

I was prepping for a client presentation the other night — the usual: polishing slides, tightening the narrative, making sure the data told the truth we live every day.

At one point I decided to answer a simple question I’d never formally calculated: What is our actual, program-wide change order percentage since the company started?

Not a gut feel. Not a rough estimate. The real number.

So I went digging! When I finally pulled the data together, the result didn’t look real: –0.031%.

That was the total owner change order rate by total volume across every project we’ve done since 2022. Once I saw it, I needed to see the breakdown. Here is what came out:

• Stronghold-directed Change Orders: –0.728%

• Owner-directed Change Orders: 0.697%

When I saw the full picture, I stopped what I was doing. Because those numbers tell a story — and not the one this industry is used to hearing.

Why These Numbers Matter (And What They Actually Mean)

Metrics are only useful if they reflect reality. So here’s what each of these numbers actually says about how we run our projects.

1. –0.031% Overall Change Orders

Most firms are sitting anywhere from 5 to 20 percent cost growth when you factor in design gaps, unforeseen conditions, and the domino effect of poor project setup.

A negative overall percentage is unheard of. This number means:

• We don’t hide risk behind contingencies.

• We don’t let loose ends slide into construction.

• We don’t treat ambiguity like someone else’s problem.

• We solve issues before they cost anyone money.

This is the final exam grade. And it says we don’t just control change orders — we almost eliminate them.

2. –0.728% Stronghold-Directed Change Orders

This one shocked me the most. Negative Stronghold-directed COs mean we initiated more deductive changes than additive ones.

Translation:

• Allowances weren’t fully used.

• Contingencies weren’t touched.

• Budgets came in better than expected.

• Early coordination prevented downstream issues.

• Trade buyouts were clean and tight.

These aren’t “concessions.” They’re returns — money going back to the owner because it wasn’t needed.

3. 0.697% Owner-Directed Change Orders

These are the only change orders that should exist. Owner-driven COs are decisions, not failures. They include:

• Additions

• Upgrades

• Scope enhancements

• “While you’re here, let’s also add…”

• Quality-of-life improvements

At 0.697%, it means the only cost growth happening is intentional growth — the kind the owner chooses. Not surprises, gaps, or errors.

Why I’m Sharing This

Not to celebrate a number, but to challenge a belief. For years, this industry has survived on the same excuses: “Change orders are unavoidable” or “Design issues always show up in the field.”

We’re starting to poke holes in those old, accepted lines with data. What we’ve proven in practice is what the industry has been avoiding in principle: Disciplined preconstruction and real collaboration can eliminate most cost growth.